Difference between revisions of "Feasibility"
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= Economical studies = | = Economical studies = | ||
Numerous studies by different research institutes and think tanks show that <strong>immediate</strong> embargo of Russian gas, oil and coal would be <strong>manageable</strong>. The costs are estimated comparable or below Coronavirus protection measures (e.g, -0.5% to -6% GDP in Germany). | Numerous studies by different research institutes and think tanks show that <strong>immediate</strong> embargo of Russian gas, oil and coal would be <strong>manageable</strong>. The costs are estimated comparable or below Coronavirus protection measures (e.g, -0.5% to -6% GDP in Germany). | ||
| − | Importantly, most studies analyzed the impact of an embargo starting from March/April 2022. Banning Russian energy now (May/June) would be even easier/cheaper: EU gas storage filling levels increased from 25% in March to | + | Importantly, most studies analyzed the impact of an embargo starting from March/April 2022. Banning Russian energy now (May/June) would be even easier/cheaper: EU gas storage filling levels increased from 25% in March to 50% as of June, 5th <ref>https://agsi.gie.eu/</ref>. Cynically, this "improvement" was paid by thousands of Ukrainian lives. |
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| Energy supply in Germany is secured also without natural gas from Russia | | Energy supply in Germany is secured also without natural gas from Russia | ||
| ~10% gas shortage | | ~10% gas shortage | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | style="text-align:left;"| Leopoldina <ref>https://www.leopoldina.org/fileadmin/redaktion/Publikationen/Nationale_Empfehlungen/2022_Stellungnahme_Energiesicherheit_V1.1.pdf</ref> | ||
| + | | 08.03.2022 | ||
| + | | Germany | ||
| + | | Natural gas | ||
| + | | How Russian gas can be substituted in German and European energy supply | ||
| + | | "We come to the conclusion that immediate stop of Russian gas supply would be manageable for German economy. It could come to shortages in the next winter, however it is possible to limit negative effects and alleviate social hardness by implementing the suggested counter-measures." | ||
|- | |- | ||
| style="text-align:left;"| ECONtribute <ref>https://www.econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkpbs/ECONtribute_PB_029_2022.pdf</ref> | | style="text-align:left;"| ECONtribute <ref>https://www.econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkpbs/ECONtribute_PB_029_2022.pdf</ref> | ||
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| Natural gas | | Natural gas | ||
| Impact of Russia-Ukraine war on European gas markets: can Europe cope without Russian gas? | | Impact of Russia-Ukraine war on European gas markets: can Europe cope without Russian gas? | ||
| − | | -14% demand reduction with concerted efforts by regulators, industry and consumers <br> EUR 60-100 billion investment and government intervention to fill the storage | + | | -14% demand reduction with concerted efforts by regulators, industry and consumers <br> EUR 60-100 billion investment and government intervention to fill the storage <br> [https://youtu.be/ab7jFm8CUnU Video presentation] |
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* Guriyev, Sergei, and Oleg Itskhoki. "Oil and Gas from Russia: Why an Embargo Could End Vladimir Putin's War." Der Spiegel, March 22, 2022, sec. Economy. https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/oel-und-gas-aus-russia-warum-ein-embargo-wladimir-putins-krieg-beenden-koennte-a-9537c522-5f56-4856-97bc-86080c2b7028 | * Guriyev, Sergei, and Oleg Itskhoki. "Oil and Gas from Russia: Why an Embargo Could End Vladimir Putin's War." Der Spiegel, March 22, 2022, sec. Economy. https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/oel-und-gas-aus-russia-warum-ein-embargo-wladimir-putins-krieg-beenden-koennte-a-9537c522-5f56-4856-97bc-86080c2b7028 | ||
* Lukasz Rachel. “RUSSIA ENERGY BAN MYTH BUSTER: Frequent Arguments against Taking Action Now, and Why They Don't Stack up,” 2022. https://t.co/L26ZGfX9IK | * Lukasz Rachel. “RUSSIA ENERGY BAN MYTH BUSTER: Frequent Arguments against Taking Action Now, and Why They Don't Stack up,” 2022. https://t.co/L26ZGfX9IK | ||
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| − | |||
Acknowledgments: Parts of the analysis from https://weact.campact.de/org/petitions/importstopp-von-russian-gas-jetzt-ohne-finanzierung-von-putins-kriegsmaschinerie-mehr | Acknowledgments: Parts of the analysis from https://weact.campact.de/org/petitions/importstopp-von-russian-gas-jetzt-ohne-finanzierung-von-putins-kriegsmaschinerie-mehr | ||
Revision as of 14:01, 6 June 2022
Economical studies
Numerous studies by different research institutes and think tanks show that immediate embargo of Russian gas, oil and coal would be manageable. The costs are estimated comparable or below Coronavirus protection measures (e.g, -0.5% to -6% GDP in Germany). Importantly, most studies analyzed the impact of an embargo starting from March/April 2022. Banning Russian energy now (May/June) would be even easier/cheaper: EU gas storage filling levels increased from 25% in March to 50% as of June, 5th [1]. Cynically, this "improvement" was paid by thousands of Ukrainian lives.
| Author | Date | Scope | Energy type | Title | Estimated impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIW Berlin ifo München IfW Kiel IWH Halle RWI Essen [2] |
12.04.2022 | Germany | All | From pandemic to the energy crisis – Economy and politics under permanent stress | GDP: +1.9% in 2022, -2.2% in 2023 Unemployment: 5.2% in 2022, 6.0% in 2023 |
| DIW [3] | 08.04.2022 | Germany | Natural gas | Energy supply in Germany is secured also without natural gas from Russia | ~10% gas shortage |
| Leopoldina [4] | 08.03.2022 | Germany | Natural gas | How Russian gas can be substituted in German and European energy supply | "We come to the conclusion that immediate stop of Russian gas supply would be manageable for German economy. It could come to shortages in the next winter, however it is possible to limit negative effects and alleviate social hardness by implementing the suggested counter-measures." |
| ECONtribute [5] | 07.03.2022 | Germany | All | What if...? The economic impact of a Russian energy import ban on Germany | -0,5 % to -3 % GDP |
| Allianz Research [6] | 03.03.2022 | Europe | Natural gas | Can Europe do without Russian gas? | +40% electricity price increase and a +100% gas price, which would reduce demand by 8-10% and increase supply from alternative sources by 8-10% in the short-term |
| Aurora Research [7] | 03.03.2022 | Europe | Natural gas | Impact of Russia-Ukraine war on European gas markets: can Europe cope without Russian gas? | -14% demand reduction with concerted efforts by regulators, industry and consumers EUR 60-100 billion investment and government intervention to fill the storage Video presentation |
- MEP Michael Bloss, Dr. Manuel Köhler (Aurora), Prof. Veronika Grimm (FAU), Franziska Brantner (BMWK), Elias Perabo on Europe Calling "Stop gas, oil and coal from Russia?", 2022, https://youtu.be/ab7jFm8CUnU . At the beginning the analyzes by Aurora Energy Research, especially from minute 9 "Halt to Russian gas imports scenario", and Prof. Grimm, then discussion.
- Palacio, A. (2022, February 28). How Europe Can Sustain Russia Sanctions | by Ana Palacio, et al. Project Syndicate. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/europe-security-facility-to-enable-sanctions-by-ana-palacio-et-al-2022-02
- Hecking, Harald, Christopher John, and Florian Weiser. “An Embargo of Russian Gas and Security of Supply in Europe,” 2014. https://www.ewi.uni-koeln.de/cms/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2014-09__An_Embargo_of_Russian_Gas_and_Security_of_Supply_in_Europe_0610.pdf
- Bayer, Christian, Moritz Kuhn, Benjamin Moll, and Moritz Schularick. "Russian gas import ban: Procrastination costs a lot more." The time. March 14, 2022, Economy. https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2022-03/importstopp-gas-russia-ukraine-energie/komplettsicht
- Institute of German Economics, “Russian gas: Can Europe cope with an import ban?”. https://www.iwkoeln.de/presse/iw-nachrichten/verkraftet-europa-einen-importstopp.html . In it, the effects of gas embargoes against Russia of various lengths are analyzed within the framework of hypothetical scenarios.
- Guriev, Sergei, and Olivier Itskhoki. The Economic Rationale for an Oil and Gas Embargo on Putin's Regime. bne IntelliNews, March 24, 2022. https://www.bne.eu/comment-the-economic-rationale-for-an-oil-and-gas-embargo-on-putin-s-regime-239019/?source=ukraine
- Guriyev, Sergei, and Oleg Itskhoki. "Oil and Gas from Russia: Why an Embargo Could End Vladimir Putin's War." Der Spiegel, March 22, 2022, sec. Economy. https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/oel-und-gas-aus-russia-warum-ein-embargo-wladimir-putins-krieg-beenden-koennte-a-9537c522-5f56-4856-97bc-86080c2b7028
- Lukasz Rachel. “RUSSIA ENERGY BAN MYTH BUSTER: Frequent Arguments against Taking Action Now, and Why They Don't Stack up,” 2022. https://t.co/L26ZGfX9IK
Acknowledgments: Parts of the analysis from https://weact.campact.de/org/petitions/importstopp-von-russian-gas-jetzt-ohne-finanzierung-von-putins-kriegsmaschinerie-mehr
Opinions and statements
It is important to differentiate between evidence- and data-based studies listed above, and individual opinions, which are based on general wisdom and/or (presumed) expertise in the field, and can be heavily biased.
Pro-embargo
Contra-embargo
Gas Delivery Reports
- ddobble.net. “EU Member State Spending on Russian Fossil Fuels.” http://beyond-coal.eu/russian-fossil-fuel-tracker/
- "EU Continues to Buy Russian Gas Amid Ukraine War - Bloomberg." Accessed March 29, 2022. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/eu-s-payments-for-russian-gas-surge-amid-war-chart
- ENTSOG gas flow data https://transparency.entsog.eu/#/points/data?points=
- European natural gas imports: https://www.bruegel.org/publications/datasets/european-natural-gas-imports/
cost accounts:
- 1 trillion EUR: Liadze, Iana, Corrado Macchiarelli, Paul Mortimer-Lee, and Patricia Sanchez Juanino. “The Economic Costs of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict,” no. 32 (nd): 12. https://www.niesr.ac.uk/publications/economic-costs-russia-ukraine-conflict?type=policy-papers
For comparison: US cost of war in Afghanistan: $2.313 trillion, Watson Institute. “Human and Budgetary Costs to Date of the US War in Afghanistan, 2001-2022 | Characters | cost of war." The Costs of War, 2022. https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/figures/2021/human-and-budgetary-costs-date-us-war-afghanistan-2001-2022
References
- ↑ https://agsi.gie.eu/
- ↑ https://gemeinschaftsdiagnose.de/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/GD_F22_Langfassung_online.pdf
- ↑ https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.838841.de/diw_aktuell_83.pdf
- ↑ https://www.leopoldina.org/fileadmin/redaktion/Publikationen/Nationale_Empfehlungen/2022_Stellungnahme_Energiesicherheit_V1.1.pdf
- ↑ https://www.econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkpbs/ECONtribute_PB_029_2022.pdf
- ↑ https://www.allianz.com/content/dam/onemarketing/azcom/Allianz_com/economic-research/publications/specials/en/2022/march/2022_03_03_EU_without_russian_gas.pdf
- ↑ https://nkro22cl16pbxzrpzy39bezk-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Aurora_Mar22_ImpactRussia_Ukraine_EuropeanGas_InsightsPage-1.pdf