Difference between revisions of "Impact"

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{{DISPLAYTITLE:Impact on Russia}}
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'''In short:''' if money from energy exports are indeed not essential to continue the war, and if embargo would really hurt Europe/the West much worse than russia, then why hasn't putin cut off the supply yet?
  
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= Impact so far =
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* In June 2022, #Russia's GDP was down 4.9% year-over-year, according to the Russian Economy Ministry. [https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1552371915909652480 via @jakluge]
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[https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1552371915909652480 <img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FYshP1naMAENfUG?format=png&name=900x900" width="400">]
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* Russian revenues from energy export decreased by ~40% in July compared to March (EU: -50%). Still, '''EU is paying 200 to 300 mln EUR every day!''' ([https://crea.shinyapps.io/russia_counter/?tab=methodology according to CREA estimates]).
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[[File:Crea day avg.png|border|frameless|400x550px]]
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[[File:Crea time country.png|frameless|400x550px]]
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* Russia gas export volumes down 3/4 compared to 2021, but profits are similar due to higher prices. OTOH profits are much lower than late 2021/early 2022, and decline sharply ([https://twitter.com/ben_moll/status/1540692094716588033/photo/1 via @ben_moll]):
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[https://twitter.com/ben_moll/status/1540692094716588033/photo/1 <img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FWGcePuXEAEGbvo?format=png&name=large" width="500">]
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* Oil import volume has been reduced by 10 billion EUR: {{Cite web| title = Europe’s Russian oil embargo: significant but not yet {{!}} Bruegel| accessdate = 2022-06-06| url = https://www.bruegel.org/blog-post/europes-russian-oil-embargo-significant-not-yet}}
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* Yale School of Management: [https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193 "Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy"] (July 2022)
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* {{Cite news| issn = 0044-2070| last1 = Bauer| first1 = Jakob| last2 = Blickle| first2 = Paul| last3 = Ehmann| first3 = Annick| last4 = Endt| first4 = Christian| last5 = Erdmann| first5 = Elena| last6 = Grefe-Huge| first6 = Carla| last7 = Peter| first7 = Valentin| last8 = Tröger| first8 = Julius| title = Energiemonitor: Teuer, klimaschädlich und abhängig von Russland| work = Die Zeit| location = Hamburg| accessdate = 2022-06-05| date = 2022-06-03| url = https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2022-04/energiekosten-deutschland-gas-strom-benzin-energiemonitor}}​
  
  
* Former Putin advisor Dr Illarionov said if Western countries "would try to implement a real embargo on oil and gas exports from Russia... I would bet that probably within a month or two, Russian military operations in Ukraine, probably will be ceased, will be stopped"<ref name="Josephs"/>
 
  
* Oil import volume has been reduced by 10 billion EUR <ref>{{Cite web| title = Europe’s Russian oil embargo: significant but not yet {{!}} Bruegel| accessdate = 2022-06-06| url = https://www.bruegel.org/2022/06/europes-russian-oil-embargo-significant-but-not-yet/}}</ref>
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= Energy embargo =
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* {{Cite web| title = Experten: Langfristiger Gas-Lieferstopp aus Russland technisch nicht möglich | accessdate = 2022-07-19| url = https://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/deutschland/wirtschaft/erdgas-nordstream-wartung-102.html}}
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* Former Putin advisor Dr Illarionov said if Western countries "would try to implement a real embargo on oil and gas exports from Russia... I would bet that probably within a month or two, Russian military operations in Ukraine, probably will be ceased, will be stopped": {{Cite news| last = Josephs| first = Jonathan| title = Full embargo on oil could stop war - ex-Putin aide| work = BBC News| accessdate = 2022-04-19| date = 2022-04-10| url = https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61040424}}
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* {{Cite news| issn = 0931-9085| last = Schöneberg| first = Kai| title = Ökonom zu Stopp der Gaslieferungen: „Moskau droht eine akute Situation“| work = Die Tageszeitung: taz| accessdate = 2022-03-03| date = 2022-03-03| url = https://taz.de/!5835533/}}
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* {{Cite news| issn = 2195-1349| last1 = Gurijew| first1 = Sergej| last2 = Itskhoki| first2 = Oleg| title = Öl und Gas aus Russland: Warum ein Embargo Wladimir Putins Krieg beenden könnte| work = Der Spiegel| accessdate = 2022-03-22| date = 2022-03-22| url = https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/oel-und-gas-aus-russland-warum-ein-embargo-wladimir-putins-krieg-beenden-koennte-a-9537c522-5f56-4856-97bc-86080c2b7028}}
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* {{Cite news| issn = 0174-4909| last = Wagner| first = Katharina| title = Ökonom Sergej Gurijew: „In so einer Lage ist Putin nie zuvor gewesen“| work = FAZ.NET| accessdate = 2022-05-31| url = https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/russischer-oekonom-zum-oelembargo-duestere-zukunft-fuer-putin-18071427.html}}
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* {{Cite news| issn = 2195-1349| title = Hohe Energiepreise: Moskau rechnet mit fast 14 Milliarden Euro Mehreinnahmen| work = Der Spiegel| accessdate = 2022-05-29| date = 2022-05-28| url = https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/hohe-energiepreise-moskau-rechnet-mit-fast-14-milliarden-euro-mehreinnahmen-a-dfdbe40b-6974-4c7a-b0a0-78fc3bdf12af}}
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* {{Cite web| last1 = Guriev| last2 = Itskhoki| title = The Economic Rationale for Oil and Gas Embargo on Putin’s Regime| work = Dropbox| accessdate = 2022-03-30| date = 2022| url = https://www.dropbox.com/s/wmptre3vkfkqysf/Guriev%20Itskhoki.pdf}}
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* {{Cite web| title = Russland fördert wegen der Sanktionen des Westens immer weniger Öl| accessdate = 2022-04-29| url = https://www.fr.de/politik/sanktionen-ukraine-krieg-russland-weniger-oel-foerderung-zr-91511026.html}}
  
* Also, 2022 gas imports from Russia have been lower than 2021 <ref name="Bauer">{{Cite news| issn = 0044-2070| last1 = Bauer| first1 = Jakob| last2 = Blickle| first2 = Paul| last3 = Ehmann| first3 = Annick| last4 = Endt| first4 = Christian| last5 = Erdmann| first5 = Elena| last6 = Grefe-Huge| first6 = Carla| last7 = Peter| first7 = Valentin| last8 = Tröger| first8 = Julius| title = Energiemonitor: Teuer, klimaschädlich und abhängig von Russland| work = Die Zeit| location = Hamburg| accessdate = 2022-06-05| date = 2022-06-03| url = https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2022-04/energiekosten-deutschland-gas-strom-benzin-energiemonitor}}</ref>
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= Embargo in general =
  
​​Referencees
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* {{Cite encyclopedia| last = Wikipedia| title = 2022 boycott of Russia and Belarus| encyclopedia = Wikipedia| accessdate = 2022-03-06| date = 2022-03-06| url = https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2022_boycott_of_Russia_and_Belarus&oldid=1075642737}}
{{Cite news| issn = 0931-9085| last = Schöneberg| first = Kai| title = Ökonom zu Stopp der Gaslieferungen: „Moskau droht eine akute Situation“| work = Die Tageszeitung: taz| accessdate = 2022-03-03| date = 2022-03-03| url = https://taz.de/!5835533/}}
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* {{Cite news| issn = 0174-4909| last = Pennekamp| first = Johannes| title = Ökonom Ockenfels im Interview: „Putin wird sich früher oder später über „Endgame“-Szenarien Gedanken machen“| work = FAZ.NET| accessdate = 2022-03-16| url = https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/energieexperte-ueber-russisches-gas-und-verhandlungen-mit-putin-17877160.html}}
{{Cite encyclopedia| last = Wikipedia| title = 2022 boycott of Russia and Belarus| encyclopedia = Wikipedia| accessdate = 2022-03-06| date = 2022-03-06| url = https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2022_boycott_of_Russia_and_Belarus&oldid=1075642737}}
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* {{Cite web| last = Newsroom| title = Kadri Simson: EU sanctions would gradually deplete Russia’s oil revenues {{!}} eKathimerini.com| accessdate = 2022-03-16| url = https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/1178915/kadri-simson-eu-sanctions-would-gradually-deplete-russias-oil-revenues/}}
{{Cite news| issn = 0174-4909| last = Pennekamp| first = Johannes| title = Ökonom Ockenfels im Interview: „Putin wird sich früher oder später über „Endgame“-Szenarien Gedanken machen“| work = FAZ.NET| accessdate = 2022-03-16| url = https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/energieexperte-ueber-russisches-gas-und-verhandlungen-mit-putin-17877160.html}}
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* {{Cite conference| publisher = FIW| last1 = Felbermayr| first1 = Gabriel| last2 = Mahlkow| first2 = Hendrik| last3 = Sandkamp| first3 = Alexander| title = Cutting through the Value Chain: The long-run effects of decoupling the East from the West| series = FIW Working Paper series| accessdate = 2022-03-20| date = 2022-02| url = https://ideas.repec.org/p/wsr/wpaper/y2022i196.html}}
{{Cite web| last = Newsroom| title = Kadri Simson: EU sanctions would gradually deplete Russia’s oil revenues {{!}} eKathimerini.com| accessdate = 2022-03-16| url = https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/1178915/kadri-simson-eu-sanctions-would-gradually-deplete-russias-oil-revenues/}}
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* {{Cite web| title = Wirtschaftsweiser Achim Truger: "Russische Wirtschaft kann das lange aushalten"| accessdate = 2022-03-30| date = 2022-03-30| url = https://rp-online.de/nrw/staedte/duisburg/wirtschaftsweiser-achim-truger-russische-wirtschaft-kann-das-lange-aushalten_aid-67028823}}
{{Cite conference| publisher = FIW| last1 = Felbermayr| first1 = Gabriel| last2 = Mahlkow| first2 = Hendrik| last3 = Sandkamp| first3 = Alexander| title = Cutting through the Value Chain: The long-run effects of decoupling the East from the West| series = FIW Working Paper series| accessdate = 2022-03-20| date = 2022-02| url = https://ideas.repec.org/p/wsr/wpaper/y2022i196.html}}
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* {{Cite web| title = Angriffskrieg auf die Ukraine – deutsche Wirtschaft schmiert ab| accessdate = 2022-03-30| date = 2022-03-30| url = https://www.bz-berlin.de/deutschland/angriffskrieg-auf-die-ukraine-deutsche-wirtschaft-schmiert-ab}}
{{Cite news| issn = 2195-1349| last1 = Gurijew| first1 = Sergej| last2 = Itskhoki| first2 = Oleg| title = Öl und Gas aus Russland: Warum ein Embargo Wladimir Putins Krieg beenden könnte| work = Der Spiegel| accessdate = 2022-03-22| date = 2022-03-22| url = https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/oel-und-gas-aus-russland-warum-ein-embargo-wladimir-putins-krieg-beenden-koennte-a-9537c522-5f56-4856-97bc-86080c2b7028}}
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* {{Cite news| issn = 0174-4909| title = Importbeschränkungen: Zentralbankchefin: Russische Wirtschaft muss sich neu aufstellen| work = FAZ.NET| accessdate = 2022-04-18| date = 2022-04-18| url = https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/mehr-wirtschaft/russische-zentralbankchefin-wirtschaft-neu-aufstellen-17965136.html}}
{{Cite web| title = Wirtschaftsweiser Achim Truger: "Russische Wirtschaft kann das lange aushalten"| accessdate = 2022-03-30| date = 2022-03-30| url = https://rp-online.de/nrw/staedte/duisburg/wirtschaftsweiser-achim-truger-russische-wirtschaft-kann-das-lange-aushalten_aid-67028823}}
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* {{Cite web| last = online| first = heise| title = Halbleiter: Eine moderne russische Chipfertigung ist derzeit unrealistisch| work = heise online| accessdate = 2022-04-20| url = https://www.heise.de/hintergrund/Halbleiter-Eine-moderne-russische-Chipfertigung-ist-derzeit-unrealistisch-7017395.html}}
{{Cite web| title = Angriffskrieg auf die Ukraine – deutsche Wirtschaft schmiert ab| accessdate = 2022-03-30| date = 2022-03-30| url = https://www.bz-berlin.de/deutschland/angriffskrieg-auf-die-ukraine-deutsche-wirtschaft-schmiert-ab}}
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* {{Cite web| title = Russland steht vor der Staatspleite: Jetzt nutzt Moskau nicht mal mehr Geld| accessdate = 2022-04-21| url = https://www.fr.de/wirtschaft/russland-staatspleite-moskau-sanktionen-kreml-ukraine-krieg-russen-staat-91484996.html}}
{{Cite web| last1 = Guriev| last2 = Itskhoki| title = The Economic Rationale for Oil and Gas Embargo on Putin’s Regime| work = Dropbox| accessdate = 2022-03-30| date = 2022| url = https://www.dropbox.com/s/wmptre3vkfkqysf/Guriev%20Itskhoki.pdf}}
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* {{Cite web| title = Statistisches Bundesamt: Deutsche Exporte nach Russland sinken um mehr als die Hälfte {{!}} ZEIT ONLINE| accessdate = 2022-04-21| url = https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2022-04/deutschland-exporte-russland-einbruch-ukraine-krieg}}
{{Cite news| issn = 0174-4909| title = Importbeschränkungen: Zentralbankchefin: Russische Wirtschaft muss sich neu aufstellen| work = FAZ.NET| accessdate = 2022-04-18| date = 2022-04-18| url = https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/mehr-wirtschaft/russische-zentralbankchefin-wirtschaft-neu-aufstellen-17965136.html}}
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* {{Cite web| last1 = Guriev| first1 = Sergei| last2 = Itskhoki| first2 = Olivier| title = The economic rationale for an oil and gas embargo on Putin’s regime| work = bne IntelliNews| accessdate = 2022-04-22| date = 2022-03-24| url = https://www.bne.eu/comment-the-economic-rationale-for-an-oil-and-gas-embargo-on-putin-s-regime-239019/?source=ukraine}}
{{Cite news| last = Josephs| first = Jonathan| title = Full embargo on oil could stop war - ex-Putin aide| work = BBC News| accessdate = 2022-04-19| date = 2022-04-10| url = https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61040424}}
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* {{Cite web| title = SanctionsWorkingGroup-ActionPlan.pdf| work = Google Docs| accessdate = 2022-04-24| url = https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Kte4W9X55Ha533hJAHJwn9YwMO94ScAG/view?usp=embed_facebook}}
{{Cite web| last = online| first = heise| title = Halbleiter: Eine moderne russische Chipfertigung ist derzeit unrealistisch| work = heise online| accessdate = 2022-04-20| url = https://www.heise.de/hintergrund/Halbleiter-Eine-moderne-russische-Chipfertigung-ist-derzeit-unrealistisch-7017395.html}}
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* {{Cite web| title = High-level Impact of Sanctions on Russian Economy - April 2022.pdf| work = Google Docs| accessdate = 2022-04-24| url = https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ky7hQKY0Yt8y9mLLWkJp1EjbYTBhX9MX/view?usp=sharing&usp=embed_facebook}}
{{Cite web| title = Russland steht vor der Staatspleite: Jetzt nutzt Moskau nicht mal mehr Geld| accessdate = 2022-04-21| url = https://www.fr.de/wirtschaft/russland-staatspleite-moskau-sanktionen-kreml-ukraine-krieg-russen-staat-91484996.html}}
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* {{Cite news| issn = 0174-4909| last = Wagner| first = Katharina| title = Sanktionen gegen Russland: Langer Atem gegen Putin| work = FAZ.NET| accessdate = 2022-05-25| url = https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/sanktionen-gegen-russland-im-ukraine-krieg-krise-durch-die-abkehr-vieler-firmen-18056134.html}}
{{Cite web| title = Statistisches Bundesamt: Deutsche Exporte nach Russland sinken um mehr als die Hälfte {{!}} ZEIT ONLINE| accessdate = 2022-04-21| url = https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2022-04/deutschland-exporte-russland-einbruch-ukraine-krieg}}
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* {{Cite news| issn = 0945-2095| last = Bathon| first = Roland| title = Sanktionen gegen Russland: China baut Moskwitsch 2.0 in ehemaligem Renault-Werk| work = Der Freitag| accessdate = 2022-05-28| date = 2022-05-28| url = https://www.freitag.de/autoren/der-freitag/sanktionen-gegen-russland-china-baut-moskwitsch-2-0-in-ehemaligem-renault-werk}}
{{Cite web| last1 = Guriev| first1 = Sergei| last2 = Itskhoki| first2 = Olivier| title = The economic rationale for an oil and gas embargo on Putin’s regime| work = bne IntelliNews| accessdate = 2022-04-22| date = 2022-03-24| url = https://www.bne.eu/comment-the-economic-rationale-for-an-oil-and-gas-embargo-on-putin-s-regime-239019/?source=ukraine}}
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* {{Citation | year=2022 | title=Russian airlines strip jets for spare parts as Ukraine war sanctions hit industry | url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-09/russian-airlines-impacted-by-sanctions/101315094 | access-date=9 August 2022}}
{{Cite web| title = SanctionsWorkingGroup-ActionPlan.pdf| work = Google Docs| accessdate = 2022-04-24| url = https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Kte4W9X55Ha533hJAHJwn9YwMO94ScAG/view?usp=embed_facebook}}
 
{{Cite web| title = High-level Impact of Sanctions on Russian Economy - April 2022.pdf| work = Google Docs| accessdate = 2022-04-24| url = https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ky7hQKY0Yt8y9mLLWkJp1EjbYTBhX9MX/view?usp=sharing&usp=embed_facebook}}
 
{{Cite web| title = Russland fördert wegen der Sanktionen des Westens immer weniger Öl| accessdate = 2022-04-29| url = https://www.fr.de/politik/sanktionen-ukraine-krieg-russland-weniger-oel-foerderung-zr-91511026.html}}
 
{{Cite news| issn = 0174-4909| last = Wagner| first = Katharina| title = Sanktionen gegen Russland: Langer Atem gegen Putin| work = FAZ.NET| accessdate = 2022-05-25| url = https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/sanktionen-gegen-russland-im-ukraine-krieg-krise-durch-die-abkehr-vieler-firmen-18056134.html}}
 
 
 
{{Cite news| issn = 0945-2095| last = Bathon| first = Roland| title = Sanktionen gegen Russland: China baut Moskwitsch 2.0 in ehemaligem Renault-Werk| work = Der Freitag| accessdate = 2022-05-28| date = 2022-05-28| url = https://www.freitag.de/autoren/der-freitag/sanktionen-gegen-russland-china-baut-moskwitsch-2-0-in-ehemaligem-renault-werk}}
 
 
 
{Cite news| issn = 2195-1349| title = Hohe Energiepreise: Moskau rechnet mit fast 14 Milliarden Euro Mehreinnahmen| work = Der Spiegel| accessdate = 2022-05-29| date = 2022-05-28| url = https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/hohe-energiepreise-moskau-rechnet-mit-fast-14-milliarden-euro-mehreinnahmen-a-dfdbe40b-6974-4c7a-b0a0-78fc3bdf12af}}
 
 
 
{{Cite news| issn = 0174-4909| last = Wagner| first = Katharina| title = Ökonom Sergej Gurijew: „In so einer Lage ist Putin nie zuvor gewesen“| work = FAZ.NET| accessdate = 2022-05-31| url = https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/russischer-oekonom-zum-oelembargo-duestere-zukunft-fuer-putin-18071427.html}}
 

Latest revision as of 19:48, 9 August 2022

In short: if money from energy exports are indeed not essential to continue the war, and if embargo would really hurt Europe/the West much worse than russia, then why hasn't putin cut off the supply yet?

Impact so far[edit | edit source]

  • In June 2022, #Russia's GDP was down 4.9% year-over-year, according to the Russian Economy Ministry. via @jakluge

  • Russian revenues from energy export decreased by ~40% in July compared to March (EU: -50%). Still, EU is paying 200 to 300 mln EUR every day! (according to CREA estimates).

Crea day avg.png Crea time country.png

  • Russia gas export volumes down 3/4 compared to 2021, but profits are similar due to higher prices. OTOH profits are much lower than late 2021/early 2022, and decline sharply (via @ben_moll):

  • Oil import volume has been reduced by 10 billion EUR: "Europe's Russian oil embargo: significant but not yet | Bruegel". Retrieved 2022-06-06.
  • Yale School of Management: "Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy" (July 2022)
  • Bauer, Jakob; Blickle, Paul; Ehmann, Annick; Endt, Christian; Erdmann, Elena; Grefe-Huge, Carla; Peter, Valentin; Tröger, Julius (2022-06-03). "Energiemonitor: Teuer, klimaschädlich und abhängig von Russland". Die Zeit. Hamburg. ISSN 0044-2070. Retrieved 2022-06-05.


Energy embargo[edit | edit source]

Embargo in general[edit | edit source]