Difference between revisions of "Impact"
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| + | {{DISPLAYTITLE:Impact on Russia}} | ||
| + | '''In short:''' if money from energy exports are indeed not essential to continue the war, and if embargo would really hurt Europe/the West much worse than russia, then why hasn't putin cut off the supply yet? | ||
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| + | = Impact so far = | ||
| + | * In June 2022, #Russia's GDP was down 4.9% year-over-year, according to the Russian Economy Ministry. [https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1552371915909652480 via @jakluge] | ||
| + | [https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1552371915909652480 <img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FYshP1naMAENfUG?format=png&name=900x900" width="400">] | ||
| + | * Russian revenues from energy export decreased by ~40% in July compared to March (EU: -50%). Still, '''EU is paying 200 to 300 mln EUR every day!''' ([https://crea.shinyapps.io/russia_counter/?tab=methodology according to CREA estimates]). | ||
| + | [[File:Crea day avg.png|border|frameless|400x550px]] | ||
| + | [[File:Crea time country.png|frameless|400x550px]] | ||
| + | * Russia gas export volumes down 3/4 compared to 2021, but profits are similar due to higher prices. OTOH profits are much lower than late 2021/early 2022, and decline sharply ([https://twitter.com/ben_moll/status/1540692094716588033/photo/1 via @ben_moll]): | ||
| + | [https://twitter.com/ben_moll/status/1540692094716588033/photo/1 <img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FWGcePuXEAEGbvo?format=png&name=large" width="500">] | ||
| + | * Oil import volume has been reduced by 10 billion EUR: {{Cite web| title = Europe’s Russian oil embargo: significant but not yet {{!}} Bruegel| accessdate = 2022-06-06| url = https://www.bruegel.org/blog-post/europes-russian-oil-embargo-significant-not-yet}} | ||
| + | * Yale School of Management: [https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193 "Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy"] (July 2022) | ||
| + | * {{Cite news| issn = 0044-2070| last1 = Bauer| first1 = Jakob| last2 = Blickle| first2 = Paul| last3 = Ehmann| first3 = Annick| last4 = Endt| first4 = Christian| last5 = Erdmann| first5 = Elena| last6 = Grefe-Huge| first6 = Carla| last7 = Peter| first7 = Valentin| last8 = Tröger| first8 = Julius| title = Energiemonitor: Teuer, klimaschädlich und abhängig von Russland| work = Die Zeit| location = Hamburg| accessdate = 2022-06-05| date = 2022-06-03| url = https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2022-04/energiekosten-deutschland-gas-strom-benzin-energiemonitor}} | ||
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= Energy embargo = | = Energy embargo = | ||
| − | + | * {{Cite web| title = Experten: Langfristiger Gas-Lieferstopp aus Russland technisch nicht möglich | accessdate = 2022-07-19| url = https://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/deutschland/wirtschaft/erdgas-nordstream-wartung-102.html}} | |
* Former Putin advisor Dr Illarionov said if Western countries "would try to implement a real embargo on oil and gas exports from Russia... I would bet that probably within a month or two, Russian military operations in Ukraine, probably will be ceased, will be stopped": {{Cite news| last = Josephs| first = Jonathan| title = Full embargo on oil could stop war - ex-Putin aide| work = BBC News| accessdate = 2022-04-19| date = 2022-04-10| url = https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61040424}} | * Former Putin advisor Dr Illarionov said if Western countries "would try to implement a real embargo on oil and gas exports from Russia... I would bet that probably within a month or two, Russian military operations in Ukraine, probably will be ceased, will be stopped": {{Cite news| last = Josephs| first = Jonathan| title = Full embargo on oil could stop war - ex-Putin aide| work = BBC News| accessdate = 2022-04-19| date = 2022-04-10| url = https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61040424}} | ||
| − | + | * {{Cite news| issn = 0931-9085| last = Schöneberg| first = Kai| title = Ökonom zu Stopp der Gaslieferungen: „Moskau droht eine akute Situation“| work = Die Tageszeitung: taz| accessdate = 2022-03-03| date = 2022-03-03| url = https://taz.de/!5835533/}} | |
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* {{Cite news| issn = 2195-1349| last1 = Gurijew| first1 = Sergej| last2 = Itskhoki| first2 = Oleg| title = Öl und Gas aus Russland: Warum ein Embargo Wladimir Putins Krieg beenden könnte| work = Der Spiegel| accessdate = 2022-03-22| date = 2022-03-22| url = https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/oel-und-gas-aus-russland-warum-ein-embargo-wladimir-putins-krieg-beenden-koennte-a-9537c522-5f56-4856-97bc-86080c2b7028}} | * {{Cite news| issn = 2195-1349| last1 = Gurijew| first1 = Sergej| last2 = Itskhoki| first2 = Oleg| title = Öl und Gas aus Russland: Warum ein Embargo Wladimir Putins Krieg beenden könnte| work = Der Spiegel| accessdate = 2022-03-22| date = 2022-03-22| url = https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/oel-und-gas-aus-russland-warum-ein-embargo-wladimir-putins-krieg-beenden-koennte-a-9537c522-5f56-4856-97bc-86080c2b7028}} | ||
* {{Cite news| issn = 0174-4909| last = Wagner| first = Katharina| title = Ökonom Sergej Gurijew: „In so einer Lage ist Putin nie zuvor gewesen“| work = FAZ.NET| accessdate = 2022-05-31| url = https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/russischer-oekonom-zum-oelembargo-duestere-zukunft-fuer-putin-18071427.html}} | * {{Cite news| issn = 0174-4909| last = Wagner| first = Katharina| title = Ökonom Sergej Gurijew: „In so einer Lage ist Putin nie zuvor gewesen“| work = FAZ.NET| accessdate = 2022-05-31| url = https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/russischer-oekonom-zum-oelembargo-duestere-zukunft-fuer-putin-18071427.html}} | ||
| − | * {Cite news| issn = 2195-1349| title = Hohe Energiepreise: Moskau rechnet mit fast 14 Milliarden Euro Mehreinnahmen| work = Der Spiegel| accessdate = 2022-05-29| date = 2022-05-28| url = https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/hohe-energiepreise-moskau-rechnet-mit-fast-14-milliarden-euro-mehreinnahmen-a-dfdbe40b-6974-4c7a-b0a0-78fc3bdf12af}} | + | * {{Cite news| issn = 2195-1349| title = Hohe Energiepreise: Moskau rechnet mit fast 14 Milliarden Euro Mehreinnahmen| work = Der Spiegel| accessdate = 2022-05-29| date = 2022-05-28| url = https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/hohe-energiepreise-moskau-rechnet-mit-fast-14-milliarden-euro-mehreinnahmen-a-dfdbe40b-6974-4c7a-b0a0-78fc3bdf12af}} |
* {{Cite web| last1 = Guriev| last2 = Itskhoki| title = The Economic Rationale for Oil and Gas Embargo on Putin’s Regime| work = Dropbox| accessdate = 2022-03-30| date = 2022| url = https://www.dropbox.com/s/wmptre3vkfkqysf/Guriev%20Itskhoki.pdf}} | * {{Cite web| last1 = Guriev| last2 = Itskhoki| title = The Economic Rationale for Oil and Gas Embargo on Putin’s Regime| work = Dropbox| accessdate = 2022-03-30| date = 2022| url = https://www.dropbox.com/s/wmptre3vkfkqysf/Guriev%20Itskhoki.pdf}} | ||
* {{Cite web| title = Russland fördert wegen der Sanktionen des Westens immer weniger Öl| accessdate = 2022-04-29| url = https://www.fr.de/politik/sanktionen-ukraine-krieg-russland-weniger-oel-foerderung-zr-91511026.html}} | * {{Cite web| title = Russland fördert wegen der Sanktionen des Westens immer weniger Öl| accessdate = 2022-04-29| url = https://www.fr.de/politik/sanktionen-ukraine-krieg-russland-weniger-oel-foerderung-zr-91511026.html}} | ||
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* {{Cite news| issn = 0174-4909| last = Wagner| first = Katharina| title = Sanktionen gegen Russland: Langer Atem gegen Putin| work = FAZ.NET| accessdate = 2022-05-25| url = https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/sanktionen-gegen-russland-im-ukraine-krieg-krise-durch-die-abkehr-vieler-firmen-18056134.html}} | * {{Cite news| issn = 0174-4909| last = Wagner| first = Katharina| title = Sanktionen gegen Russland: Langer Atem gegen Putin| work = FAZ.NET| accessdate = 2022-05-25| url = https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/sanktionen-gegen-russland-im-ukraine-krieg-krise-durch-die-abkehr-vieler-firmen-18056134.html}} | ||
* {{Cite news| issn = 0945-2095| last = Bathon| first = Roland| title = Sanktionen gegen Russland: China baut Moskwitsch 2.0 in ehemaligem Renault-Werk| work = Der Freitag| accessdate = 2022-05-28| date = 2022-05-28| url = https://www.freitag.de/autoren/der-freitag/sanktionen-gegen-russland-china-baut-moskwitsch-2-0-in-ehemaligem-renault-werk}} | * {{Cite news| issn = 0945-2095| last = Bathon| first = Roland| title = Sanktionen gegen Russland: China baut Moskwitsch 2.0 in ehemaligem Renault-Werk| work = Der Freitag| accessdate = 2022-05-28| date = 2022-05-28| url = https://www.freitag.de/autoren/der-freitag/sanktionen-gegen-russland-china-baut-moskwitsch-2-0-in-ehemaligem-renault-werk}} | ||
| + | * {{Citation | year=2022 | title=Russian airlines strip jets for spare parts as Ukraine war sanctions hit industry | url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-09/russian-airlines-impacted-by-sanctions/101315094 | access-date=9 August 2022}} | ||
Latest revision as of 19:48, 9 August 2022
In short: if money from energy exports are indeed not essential to continue the war, and if embargo would really hurt Europe/the West much worse than russia, then why hasn't putin cut off the supply yet?
Impact so far[edit | edit source]
- In June 2022, #Russia's GDP was down 4.9% year-over-year, according to the Russian Economy Ministry. via @jakluge
- Russian revenues from energy export decreased by ~40% in July compared to March (EU: -50%). Still, EU is paying 200 to 300 mln EUR every day! (according to CREA estimates).
- Russia gas export volumes down 3/4 compared to 2021, but profits are similar due to higher prices. OTOH profits are much lower than late 2021/early 2022, and decline sharply (via @ben_moll):
- Oil import volume has been reduced by 10 billion EUR: "Europe's Russian oil embargo: significant but not yet | Bruegel". Retrieved 2022-06-06.
- Yale School of Management: "Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy" (July 2022)
- Bauer, Jakob; Blickle, Paul; Ehmann, Annick; Endt, Christian; Erdmann, Elena; Grefe-Huge, Carla; Peter, Valentin; Tröger, Julius (2022-06-03). "Energiemonitor: Teuer, klimaschädlich und abhängig von Russland". Die Zeit. Hamburg. ISSN 0044-2070. Retrieved 2022-06-05.
Energy embargo[edit | edit source]
- "Experten: Langfristiger Gas-Lieferstopp aus Russland technisch nicht möglich". Retrieved 2022-07-19.
- Former Putin advisor Dr Illarionov said if Western countries "would try to implement a real embargo on oil and gas exports from Russia... I would bet that probably within a month or two, Russian military operations in Ukraine, probably will be ceased, will be stopped": Josephs, Jonathan (2022-04-10). "Full embargo on oil could stop war - ex-Putin aide". BBC News. Retrieved 2022-04-19.
- Schöneberg, Kai (2022-03-03). "Ökonom zu Stopp der Gaslieferungen: „Moskau droht eine akute Situation"". Die Tageszeitung: taz. ISSN 0931-9085. Retrieved 2022-03-03.
- Gurijew, Sergej; Itskhoki, Oleg (2022-03-22). "Öl und Gas aus Russland: Warum ein Embargo Wladimir Putins Krieg beenden könnte". Der Spiegel. ISSN 2195-1349. Retrieved 2022-03-22.
- Wagner, Katharina. "Ökonom Sergej Gurijew: „In so einer Lage ist Putin nie zuvor gewesen"". FAZ.NET. ISSN 0174-4909. Retrieved 2022-05-31.
- "Hohe Energiepreise: Moskau rechnet mit fast 14 Milliarden Euro Mehreinnahmen". Der Spiegel. 2022-05-28. ISSN 2195-1349. Retrieved 2022-05-29.
- Guriev; Itskhoki (2022). "The Economic Rationale for Oil and Gas Embargo on Putin's Regime" (PDF). Dropbox. Retrieved 2022-03-30.
- "Russland fördert wegen der Sanktionen des Westens immer weniger Öl". Retrieved 2022-04-29.
Embargo in general[edit | edit source]
- Wikipedia (2022-03-06). "2022 boycott of Russia and Belarus". Wikipedia. Retrieved 2022-03-06.
- Pennekamp, Johannes. "Ökonom Ockenfels im Interview: „Putin wird sich früher oder später über „Endgame"-Szenarien Gedanken machen"". FAZ.NET. ISSN 0174-4909. Retrieved 2022-03-16.
- Newsroom. "Kadri Simson: EU sanctions would gradually deplete Russia's oil revenues | eKathimerini.com". Retrieved 2022-03-16.
- Felbermayr, Gabriel; Mahlkow, Hendrik; Sandkamp, Alexander (2022-02). Cutting through the Value Chain: The long-run effects of decoupling the East from the West. FIW Working Paper series. FIW. Retrieved 2022-03-20.
{{cite conference}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - "Wirtschaftsweiser Achim Truger: "Russische Wirtschaft kann das lange aushalten"". 2022-03-30. Retrieved 2022-03-30.
- "Angriffskrieg auf die Ukraine – deutsche Wirtschaft schmiert ab". 2022-03-30. Retrieved 2022-03-30.
- "Importbeschränkungen: Zentralbankchefin: Russische Wirtschaft muss sich neu aufstellen". FAZ.NET. 2022-04-18. ISSN 0174-4909. Retrieved 2022-04-18.
- online, heise. "Halbleiter: Eine moderne russische Chipfertigung ist derzeit unrealistisch". heise online. Retrieved 2022-04-20.
- "Russland steht vor der Staatspleite: Jetzt nutzt Moskau nicht mal mehr Geld". Retrieved 2022-04-21.
- "Statistisches Bundesamt: Deutsche Exporte nach Russland sinken um mehr als die Hälfte | ZEIT ONLINE". Retrieved 2022-04-21.
- Guriev, Sergei; Itskhoki, Olivier (2022-03-24). "The economic rationale for an oil and gas embargo on Putin's regime". bne IntelliNews. Retrieved 2022-04-22.
- "SanctionsWorkingGroup-ActionPlan.pdf". Google Docs. Retrieved 2022-04-24.
- "High-level Impact of Sanctions on Russian Economy - April 2022.pdf". Google Docs. Retrieved 2022-04-24.
- Wagner, Katharina. "Sanktionen gegen Russland: Langer Atem gegen Putin". FAZ.NET. ISSN 0174-4909. Retrieved 2022-05-25.
- Bathon, Roland (2022-05-28). "Sanktionen gegen Russland: China baut Moskwitsch 2.0 in ehemaligem Renault-Werk". Der Freitag. ISSN 0945-2095. Retrieved 2022-05-28.
- Russian airlines strip jets for spare parts as Ukraine war sanctions hit industry, 2022, retrieved 9 August 2022