Central Asia s Vast Biofuel Opportunity

The recent revelations of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA might have distorted essential oil forecasts under intense U.S. pressure is, if true (and whistleblowers rarely step forward to advance their professions), a slow-burning atomic surge on future worldwide oil production. The Bush administration's actions in pressing the IEA to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the possibilities of discovering new reserves have the potential to toss federal governments' long-term planning into chaos.


Whatever the reality, rising long term international needs appear particular to overtake production in the next decade, particularly offered the high and rising costs of establishing brand-new super-fields such as Kazakhstan's overseas Kashagan and Brazil's southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will need billions in investments before their first barrels of oil are produced.


In such a scenario, additives and substitutes such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing role by stretching beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and increasing rates drive this innovation to the leading edge, among the wealthiest possible production areas has been totally neglected by investors already - Central Asia. Formerly the USSR's cotton "plantation," the area is poised to end up being a major player in the production of biofuels if enough foreign investment can be obtained. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is produced largely from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is mostly distilled from corn, Central Asia's ace resource is a native plant, Camelina sativa.


Of the former Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the coasts of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have actually seen their economies boom because of record-high energy costs, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as an increasing producer of natural gas.


Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical isolation and fairly scant hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian next-door neighbors have actually mostly inhibited their ability to cash in on increasing international energy needs already. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan stay mostly reliant for their electrical requirements on their Soviet-era hydroelectric facilities, however their increased requirement to generate winter season electricity has actually resulted in autumnal and winter season water discharges, in turn significantly impacting the agriculture of their western downstream neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.


What these 3 downstream countries do have nevertheless is a Soviet-era legacy of farming production, which in Uzbekistan's and Turkmenistan case was mainly directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, starting in the 1950s with Khrushchev's "Virgin Lands" programs, has actually become a major producer of wheat. Based upon my discussions with Central Asian government authorities, given the thirsty needs of cotton monoculture, foreign propositions to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have great appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lesser degree Astana for those sturdy investors ready to bank on the future, especially as a plant native to the region has actually already proven itself in trials.


Known in the West as false flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is attracting increased clinical interest for its oleaginous qualities, with several European and American business currently examining how to produce it in industrial amounts for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines carried out a historic test flight using camelina-based bio-jet fuel, becoming the very first Asian carrier to experiment with flying on fuel obtained from sustainable feedstocks during a one-hour presentation flight from Tokyo's Haneda Airport. The test was the culmination of a 12-month examination of camelina's operational efficiency capability and possible industrial viability.


As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to suggest it. It has a high oil content low in saturated fat. In contrast to Central Asia's thirsty "king cotton," camelina is drought-resistant and unsusceptible to spring freezing, requires less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be utilized as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of particular interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia's major wheat exporter. Another reward of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre planted with camelina can produce approximately 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A heap (1000 kg) of camelina will contain 350 kg of oil, of which pressing can extract 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is lost as after processing, the plant's particles can be utilized for livestock silage. Camelina silage has a particularly attractive concentration of omega-3 fatty acids that make it an especially great livestock feed candidate that is recently acquiring recognition in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is quick growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and competes well against weeds when an even crop is developed. According to Britain's Bangor University's Centre for Alternative Land Use, "Camelina might be a perfect low-input crop ideal for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape."


Camelina, a branch of the mustard family, is native to both Europe and Central Asia and hardly a new crop on the scene: historical evidence shows it has been cultivated in Europe for at least 3 centuries to produce both veggie oil and animal fodder.


Field trials of production in Montana, currently the center of U.S. camelina research study, revealed a vast array of outcomes of 330-1,700 lbs of seed per acre, with oil material varying in between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have been identified to be in the 6-8 lb per acre variety, as the seeds' little size of 400,000 seeds per pound can create problems in germination to accomplish an ideal plant of around 9 plants per sq. ft.


Camelina's capacity might permit Uzbekistan to begin breaking out of its most dolorous tradition, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has distorted the nation's efforts at agrarian reform given that achieving self-reliance in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian government figured out that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow's growing fabric market. The procedure was sped up under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were likewise purchased by Moscow to sow cotton, Uzbekistan in particular was singled out to produce "white gold."


By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had actually become self-dependent in cotton; five years later on it had actually ended up being a major exporter of cotton, producing more than one-fifth of the world's production, focused in Uzbekistan, which produced 70 percent of the Soviet Union's output.


Try as it might to diversify, in the absence of alternatives Tashkent stays wedded to cotton, producing about 3.6 million loads annually, which generates more than $1 billion while constituting roughly 60 percent of the nation's hard currency income.


Beginning in the mid-1960s the Soviet government's directives for Central Asian cotton production mostly bankrupted the region's scarcest resource, water. Cotton uses about 3.5 acre feet of water per acre of plants, leading Soviet organizers to divert ever-increasing volumes of water from the area's two main rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, into inefficient watering canals, resulting in the dramatic shrinking of the rivers' last location, the Aral Sea. The Aral, once the world's fourth-largest inland sea with a location of 26,000 square miles, has actually shrunk to one-quarter its original size in among the 20th century's worst eco-friendly disasters.


And now, the dollars and cents. Dr. Bill Schillinger at Washington State University recently described camelina's company model to Capital Press as: "At 1,400 pounds per acre at 16 cents a pound, camelina would bring in $224 per acre; 28-bushel white wheat at $8.23 per bushel would garner $230."


Central Asia has the land, the farms, the irrigation facilities and a modest wage scale in contrast to America or Europe - all that's missing is the foreign financial investment. U.S. financiers have the cash and access to the competence of America's land grant universities. What is specific is that biofuel's market share will grow with time; less certain is who will profit of establishing it as a viable concern in Central Asia.


If the current past is anything to pass it is unlikely to be American and European investors, focused as they are on Caspian oil and gas.


But while the Japanese flight experiments indicate Asian interest, American investors have the scholastic competence, if they are ready to follow the Silk Road into developing a new market. Certainly anything that minimizes water use and pesticides, diversifies crop production and enhances the lot of their agrarian population will receive most careful factor to consider from Central Asia's governments, and farming and grease processing plants are not only much more affordable than pipelines, they can be developed more quickly.


And jatropha's biofuel capacity? Another story for another time.