Difference between revisions of "Feasibility"
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= Economical studies = | = Economical studies = | ||
| − | Numerous studies by different research institutes and think tanks show that immediate embargo of Russian gas, oil and coal would be manageable. | + | Numerous studies by different research institutes and think tanks show that *immediate* embargo of Russian gas, oil and coal would be manageable. The costs are estimated comparable or below Coronavirus protection measures (e.g, -0.5% to -6% GDP in Germany). |
| + | Importantly, most studies analyzed the impact of an embargo starting from March/April 2022. Banning Russian energy now (May/June) would be even easier/cheaper: EU gas storage filling levels increased from 25% in March to 45% as of May, 29th <ref>https://agsi.gie.eu/</ref>. Cynically, this "improvement" was paid by thousands of Ukrainians lives. | ||
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Acknowledgments: Parts of the analysis from https://weact.campact.de/org/petitions/importstopp-von-russian-gas-jetzt-ohne-finanzierung-von-putins-kriegsmaschinerie-mehr | Acknowledgments: Parts of the analysis from https://weact.campact.de/org/petitions/importstopp-von-russian-gas-jetzt-ohne-finanzierung-von-putins-kriegsmaschinerie-mehr | ||
| − | = | + | = Opinions and statements = |
= Gas Delivery Reports = | = Gas Delivery Reports = | ||
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For comparison: US cost of war in Afghanistan: $2.313 trillion, Watson Institute. “Human and Budgetary Costs to Date of the US War in Afghanistan, 2001-2022 | Characters | cost of war." The Costs of War, 2022. https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/figures/2021/human-and-budgetary-costs-date-us-war-afghanistan-2001-2022 | For comparison: US cost of war in Afghanistan: $2.313 trillion, Watson Institute. “Human and Budgetary Costs to Date of the US War in Afghanistan, 2001-2022 | Characters | cost of war." The Costs of War, 2022. https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/figures/2021/human-and-budgetary-costs-date-us-war-afghanistan-2001-2022 | ||
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| + | == References == | ||
Revision as of 23:20, 29 May 2022
Economical studies
Numerous studies by different research institutes and think tanks show that *immediate* embargo of Russian gas, oil and coal would be manageable. The costs are estimated comparable or below Coronavirus protection measures (e.g, -0.5% to -6% GDP in Germany). Importantly, most studies analyzed the impact of an embargo starting from March/April 2022. Banning Russian energy now (May/June) would be even easier/cheaper: EU gas storage filling levels increased from 25% in March to 45% as of May, 29th [1]. Cynically, this "improvement" was paid by thousands of Ukrainians lives.
| Author | Date | Scope | Energy type | Title | Estimated impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIW Berlin ifo München IfW Kiel IWH Halle RWI Essen [2] |
12.04.2022 | Germany | All | From pandemic to the energy crisis – Economy and politics under permanent stress | GDP: +1.9% in 2022, -2.2% in 2023 Unemployment: 5.2% in 2023, 6.0% in 2023 |
| DIW [3] | 08.04.2022 | Germany | Natural gas | Energy supply in Germany is secured also without natural gas from Russia | ~10% gas shortage |
| ECONtribute [4] | 07.03.2022 | Germany | All | What if...? The economic impact of a Russian energy import ban on Germany | -0,5 % to -3 % GDP |
| Allianz Research [5] | 03.03.2022 | Europe | Natural gas | Can Europe do without Russian gas? | +40% electricity price increase and a +100% gas price, which would reduce demand by 8-10% and increase supply from alternative sources by 8-10% in the short-term |
- Bachmann, R., Baqaee, D., Bayer, C., Kuhn, M., Loeschel, A., Moll, B., Peichl, A., Pittel, K., & Schularick, M. 2022. What if if...? The economic impact of a Russian energy import ban on Germany. 35. https://www.econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkpbs/ECONtribute_PB_029_2022.pdf
- Franziska Holz, Robin Sogalla, Christian von Hirschhausen und Claudia Kemfert (2022) "Energy supply in Germany is secured also without natural gas from Russia" https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.838841.de/diw_aktuell_83.pdf
- MEP Michael Bloss, Dr. Manuel Köhler (Aurora), Prof. Veronika Grimm (FAU), Franziska Brantner (BMWK), Elias Perabo on Europe Calling "Stop gas, oil and coal from Russia?", 2022, https://youtu.be/ab7jFm8CUnU . At the beginning the analyzes by Aurora Energy Research, especially from minute 9 "Halt to Russian gas imports scenario", and Prof. Grimm, then discussion.
- Leopoldina. (2022). How Russian natural gas can be replaced in the German and European energy supply. https://www.leopoldina.org/fileadmin/redaktion/Publikationen/Nationale_Empfehlungen/2022_Stellungnahme_EnergieSicherheit.pdf
- Palacio, A. (2022, February 28). How Europe Can Sustain Russia Sanctions | by Ana Palacio, et al. Project Syndicate. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/europe-security-facility-to-enable-sanctions-by-ana-palacio-et-al-2022-02
- Zimmer, Markus, Katharina Utermöhl, and Ano Kuhanthan, Allianz Research, “CAN EUROPE DO WITHOUT RUSSIAN GAS?,” 2022. https://www.allianz.com/content/dam/onemarketing/azcom/Allianz_com/economic-research/publications/specials/en/2022/march/2022_03_03_EU_without_russian_gas.pdf
- Hecking, Harald, Christopher John, and Florian Weiser. “An Embargo of Russian Gas and Security of Supply in Europe,” 2014. https://www.ewi.uni-koeln.de/cms/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2014-09__An_Embargo_of_Russian_Gas_and_Security_of_Supply_in_Europe_0610.pdf
- Bayer, Christian, Moritz Kuhn, Benjamin Moll, and Moritz Schularick. "Russian gas import ban: Procrastination costs a lot more." The time. March 14, 2022, Economy. https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2022-03/importstopp-gas-russia-ukraine-energie/komplettsicht
- Institute of German Economics, “Russian gas: Can Europe cope with an import ban?”. https://www.iwkoeln.de/presse/iw-nachrichten/verkraftet-europa-einen-importstopp.html . In it, the effects of gas embargoes against Russia of various lengths are analyzed within the framework of hypothetical scenarios.
- Guriev, Sergei, and Olivier Itskhoki. The Economic Rationale for an Oil and Gas Embargo on Putin's Regime. bne IntelliNews, March 24, 2022. https://www.bne.eu/comment-the-economic-rationale-for-an-oil-and-gas-embargo-on-putin-s-regime-239019/?source=ukraine
- Guriyev, Sergei, and Oleg Itskhoki. "Oil and Gas from Russia: Why an Embargo Could End Vladimir Putin's War." Der Spiegel, March 22, 2022, sec. Economy. https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/oel-und-gas-aus-russia-warum-ein-embargo-wladimir-putins-krieg-beenden-koennte-a-9537c522-5f56-4856-97bc-86080c2b7028
- Lukasz Rachel. “RUSSIA ENERGY BAN MYTH BUSTER: Frequent Arguments against Taking Action Now, and Why They Don't Stack up,” 2022. https://t.co/L26ZGfX9IK
Acknowledgments: Parts of the analysis from https://weact.campact.de/org/petitions/importstopp-von-russian-gas-jetzt-ohne-finanzierung-von-putins-kriegsmaschinerie-mehr
Opinions and statements
Gas Delivery Reports
- ddobble.net. “EU Member State Spending on Russian Fossil Fuels.” http://beyond-coal.eu/russian-fossil-fuel-tracker/
- "EU Continues to Buy Russian Gas Amid Ukraine War - Bloomberg." Accessed March 29, 2022. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/eu-s-payments-for-russian-gas-surge-amid-war-chart
- ENTSOG gas flow data https://transparency.entsog.eu/#/points/data?points=
cost accounts:
- 1 trillion EUR: Liadze, Iana, Corrado Macchiarelli, Paul Mortimer-Lee, and Patricia Sanchez Juanino. “The Economic Costs of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict,” no. 32 (nd): 12. https://www.niesr.ac.uk/publications/economic-costs-russia-ukraine-conflict?type=policy-papers
For comparison: US cost of war in Afghanistan: $2.313 trillion, Watson Institute. “Human and Budgetary Costs to Date of the US War in Afghanistan, 2001-2022 | Characters | cost of war." The Costs of War, 2022. https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/figures/2021/human-and-budgetary-costs-date-us-war-afghanistan-2001-2022
References
- ↑ https://agsi.gie.eu/
- ↑ https://gemeinschaftsdiagnose.de/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/GD_F22_Langfassung_online.pdf
- ↑ https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.838841.de/diw_aktuell_83.pdf
- ↑ https://www.econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkpbs/ECONtribute_PB_029_2022.pdf
- ↑ https://www.allianz.com/content/dam/onemarketing/azcom/Allianz_com/economic-research/publications/specials/en/2022/march/2022_03_03_EU_without_russian_gas.pdf