Difference between revisions of "Feasibility"

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= Economical studies =
 
= Economical studies =
 
Numerous studies by different research institutes and think tanks show that <strong>immediate</strong> embargo of Russian gas, oil and coal would be <strong>manageable</strong>. The costs are estimated comparable or below Coronavirus protection measures (e.g, -0.5% to -6% GDP in Germany).
 
Numerous studies by different research institutes and think tanks show that <strong>immediate</strong> embargo of Russian gas, oil and coal would be <strong>manageable</strong>. The costs are estimated comparable or below Coronavirus protection measures (e.g, -0.5% to -6% GDP in Germany).
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Importantly, most studies analyzed the impact of an embargo starting from March/April 2022. Banning Russian energy now (May/June) would be even easier/cheaper: EU gas storage filling levels increased from 25% in March to 45% as of May, 29th <ref>https://agsi.gie.eu/</ref>. Cynically, this "improvement" was paid by thousands of Ukrainian lives.
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Importantly, most studies analyzed the impact of an embargo starting from March/April 2022. Banning Russian energy now (May/June) would be even easier/cheaper: EU gas storage filling levels increased from 25% in March to 50% as of June, 5th <ref>https://agsi.gie.eu/</ref>. Cynically, this "improvement" was paid by thousands of Ukrainian lives.
  
 
{| class="wikitable sortable zebra" style="text-align:center; width:90%;"
 
{| class="wikitable sortable zebra" style="text-align:center; width:90%;"
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| Energy supply in Germany is secured also without natural gas from Russia
 
| Energy supply in Germany is secured also without natural gas from Russia
 
| ~10% gas shortage
 
| ~10% gas shortage
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|-
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| style="text-align:left;"| Leopoldina <ref>https://www.leopoldina.org/fileadmin/redaktion/Publikationen/Nationale_Empfehlungen/2022_Stellungnahme_Energiesicherheit_V1.1.pdf</ref>
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| 08.03.2022
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| Germany
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| Natural gas
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| How Russian gas can be substituted in German and European energy supply
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| "We come to the conclusion that immediate stop of Russian gas supply would be manageable for German economy. It could come to shortages in the next winter, however it is possible to limit negative effects and alleviate social hardness by implementing the suggested counter-measures."
 
|-
 
|-
 
| style="text-align:left;"| ECONtribute <ref>https://www.econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkpbs/ECONtribute_PB_029_2022.pdf</ref>
 
| style="text-align:left;"| ECONtribute <ref>https://www.econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkpbs/ECONtribute_PB_029_2022.pdf</ref>
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| Natural gas
 
| Natural gas
 
| Impact of Russia-Ukraine war on European gas markets: can Europe cope without Russian gas?
 
| Impact of Russia-Ukraine war on European gas markets: can Europe cope without Russian gas?
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| -14% demand reduction with concerted efforts by regulators, industry and consumers <br> EUR 60-100 billion investment and government intervention to fill the storage
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| -14% demand reduction with concerted efforts by regulators, industry and consumers <br> EUR 60-100 billion investment and government intervention to fill the storage <br> [https://youtu.be/ab7jFm8CUnU Video presentation]
 
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|-
 
|}
 
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* Guriyev, Sergei, and Oleg Itskhoki. "Oil and Gas from Russia: Why an Embargo Could End Vladimir Putin's War." Der Spiegel, March 22, 2022, sec. Economy. https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/oel-und-gas-aus-russia-warum-ein-embargo-wladimir-putins-krieg-beenden-koennte-a-9537c522-5f56-4856-97bc-86080c2b7028
 
* Guriyev, Sergei, and Oleg Itskhoki. "Oil and Gas from Russia: Why an Embargo Could End Vladimir Putin's War." Der Spiegel, March 22, 2022, sec. Economy. https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/oel-und-gas-aus-russia-warum-ein-embargo-wladimir-putins-krieg-beenden-koennte-a-9537c522-5f56-4856-97bc-86080c2b7028
 
* Lukasz Rachel. “RUSSIA ENERGY BAN MYTH BUSTER: Frequent Arguments against Taking Action Now, and Why They Don't Stack up,” 2022. https://t.co/L26ZGfX9IK
 
* Lukasz Rachel. “RUSSIA ENERGY BAN MYTH BUSTER: Frequent Arguments against Taking Action Now, and Why They Don't Stack up,” 2022. https://t.co/L26ZGfX9IK
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* Leopoldina: "We come to the conclusion that immediate stop of Russian gas supply would be manageable for German economy. It could come to shortages in the next winter, however it is possible to limit negative effects and alleviate social hardness by implementing the suggested counter-measures."<ref>https://www.leopoldina.org/fileadmin/redaktion/Publikationen/Nationale_Empfehlungen/2022_Stellungnahme_Energiesicherheit_V1.1.pdf</ref>
 
  
 
Acknowledgments: Parts of the analysis from https://weact.campact.de/org/petitions/importstopp-von-russian-gas-jetzt-ohne-finanzierung-von-putins-kriegsmaschinerie-mehr
 
Acknowledgments: Parts of the analysis from https://weact.campact.de/org/petitions/importstopp-von-russian-gas-jetzt-ohne-finanzierung-von-putins-kriegsmaschinerie-mehr

Revision as of 14:01, 6 June 2022

Economical studies

Numerous studies by different research institutes and think tanks show that immediate embargo of Russian gas, oil and coal would be manageable. The costs are estimated comparable or below Coronavirus protection measures (e.g, -0.5% to -6% GDP in Germany). Importantly, most studies analyzed the impact of an embargo starting from March/April 2022. Banning Russian energy now (May/June) would be even easier/cheaper: EU gas storage filling levels increased from 25% in March to 50% as of June, 5th [1]. Cynically, this "improvement" was paid by thousands of Ukrainian lives.

Author Date Scope Energy type Title Estimated impact
DIW Berlin
ifo München
IfW Kiel
IWH Halle
RWI Essen [2] 		12.04.2022 Germany All From pandemic to the energy crisis – Economy and politics under permanent stress GDP: +1.9% in 2022, -2.2% in 2023
Unemployment: 5.2% in 2022, 6.0% in 2023
DIW [3] 08.04.2022 Germany Natural gas Energy supply in Germany is secured also without natural gas from Russia ~10% gas shortage
Leopoldina [4] 08.03.2022 Germany Natural gas How Russian gas can be substituted in German and European energy supply "We come to the conclusion that immediate stop of Russian gas supply would be manageable for German economy. It could come to shortages in the next winter, however it is possible to limit negative effects and alleviate social hardness by implementing the suggested counter-measures."
ECONtribute [5] 07.03.2022 Germany All What if...? The economic impact of a Russian energy import ban on Germany -0,5 % to -3 % GDP
Allianz Research [6] 03.03.2022 Europe Natural gas Can Europe do without Russian gas? +40% electricity price increase and a +100% gas price, which would reduce demand by 8-10% and increase supply from alternative sources by 8-10% in the short-term
Aurora Research [7] 03.03.2022 Europe Natural gas Impact of Russia-Ukraine war on European gas markets: can Europe cope without Russian gas? -14% demand reduction with concerted efforts by regulators, industry and consumers
EUR 60-100 billion investment and government intervention to fill the storage
Video presentation


Acknowledgments: Parts of the analysis from https://weact.campact.de/org/petitions/importstopp-von-russian-gas-jetzt-ohne-finanzierung-von-putins-kriegsmaschinerie-mehr

Opinions and statements

It is important to differentiate between evidence- and data-based studies listed above, and individual opinions, which are based on general wisdom and/or (presumed) expertise in the field, and can be heavily biased.

Pro-embargo

Contra-embargo

Gas Delivery Reports

cost accounts:

For comparison: US cost of war in Afghanistan: $2.313 trillion, Watson Institute. “Human and Budgetary Costs to Date of the US War in Afghanistan, 2001-2022 | Characters | cost of war." The Costs of War, 2022. https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/figures/2021/human-and-budgetary-costs-date-us-war-afghanistan-2001-2022

References

  1. ↑ https://agsi.gie.eu/
  2. ↑ https://gemeinschaftsdiagnose.de/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/GD_F22_Langfassung_online.pdf
  3. ↑ https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.838841.de/diw_aktuell_83.pdf
  4. ↑ https://www.leopoldina.org/fileadmin/redaktion/Publikationen/Nationale_Empfehlungen/2022_Stellungnahme_Energiesicherheit_V1.1.pdf
  5. ↑ https://www.econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkpbs/ECONtribute_PB_029_2022.pdf
  6. ↑ https://www.allianz.com/content/dam/onemarketing/azcom/Allianz_com/economic-research/publications/specials/en/2022/march/2022_03_03_EU_without_russian_gas.pdf
  7. ↑ https://nkro22cl16pbxzrpzy39bezk-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Aurora_Mar22_ImpactRussia_Ukraine_EuropeanGas_InsightsPage-1.pdf
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