Difference between revisions of "Critical analysis: vbw-study "Folgen einer Lieferunterbrechung von russischem Gas für die deutsche Industrie" (June 2022)"
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* Our main critique is that the gas gap is calculated as too big, as in Table 5, depicted in the image. | * Our main critique is that the gas gap is calculated as too big, as in Table 5, depicted in the image. | ||
| − | ** There is an underestimation of imports, which suddenly decrease in April | + | ** There is an underestimation of imports from the Netherlands, Norway, which suddenly decrease in May/June as opposed to April, contradicting in Table 1 and Abbildung 1. Diese gelieferten Gasmengen werden auf die zusätzlich Gesamengen' werden auf die gelieferten Vorjahresmengen addiert. The 275 TWh from Norway in Table 5 |
** The conversion of electricity is ignored | ** The conversion of electricity is ignored | ||
** No energy savings are assumed, whereas energy savings already happen | ** No energy savings are assumed, whereas energy savings already happen | ||
<references /> | <references /> | ||
Revision as of 22:05, 28 June 2022
Media coverage of this study:
- Deutschlands Wettbewerbsstärke: Forscher warnen vor Gaskrise – Speicher jetzt zu 60 Prozent gefüllt, retrieved 28 June 2022
- https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/russlands-gas-lieferstopp-verband-warnt-vor-wirtschaftseinbruch-um-12-7-prozent-a-cf67b579-8951-4706-9272-e60d71c03a23
- https://www.manager-magazin.de/politik/deutschland/gas-stopp-russischer-gaslieferungen-koennte-deutschland-rund-13-prozent-der-wirtschaftsleistung-kosten-a-0ae39890-5c4d-425a-abca-a567f1bd936b
Our analysis of VBW study [1]:
- Our main critique is that the gas gap is calculated as too big, as in Table 5, depicted in the image.
- There is an underestimation of imports from the Netherlands, Norway, which suddenly decrease in May/June as opposed to April, contradicting in Table 1 and Abbildung 1. Diese gelieferten Gasmengen werden auf die zusätzlich Gesamengen' werden auf die gelieferten Vorjahresmengen addiert. The 275 TWh from Norway in Table 5
- The conversion of electricity is ignored
- No energy savings are assumed, whereas energy savings already happen
- ↑ vbw (2022), Konsequenzen eines Importstopps von russischem Erdgas, retrieved 28 June 2022