Feasibility

Economical studies

Numerous studies by different research institutes and think tanks show that *immediate* embargo of Russian gas, oil and coal would be manageable. The costs are estimated comparable or below Coronavirus protection measures (e.g, -0.5% to -6% GDP in Germany). Importantly, most studies analyzed the impact of an embargo starting from March/April 2022. Banning Russian energy now (May/June) would be even easier/cheaper: EU gas storage filling levels increased from 25% in March to 45% as of May, 29th . Cynically, this "improvement" was paid by thousands of Ukrainians lives.

Author	Date	Scope	Energy type	Title	Estimated impact
DIW Berlin ifo München IfW Kiel IWH Halle RWI Essen	12.04.2022	Germany	All	From pandemic to the energy crisis – Economy and politics under permanent stress	GDP: +1.9% in 2022, -2.2% in 2023 Unemployment: 5.2% in 2023, 6.0% in 2023
DIW	08.04.2022	Germany	Natural gas	Energy supply in Germany is secured also without natural gas from Russia	~10% gas shortage
ECONtribute	07.03.2022	Germany	All	What if...? The economic impact of a Russian energy import ban on Germany	-0,5 % to -3 % GDP
Allianz Research	03.03.2022	Europe	Natural gas	Can Europe do without Russian gas?	+40% electricity price increase and a +100% gas price, which would reduce demand by 8-10% and increase supply from alternative sources by 8-10% in the short-term

• Bachmann, R., Baqaee, D., Bayer, C., Kuhn, M., Loeschel, A., Moll, B., Peichl, A., Pittel, K., & Schularick, M. 2022. What if if...? The economic impact of a Russian energy import ban on Germany. 35. https://www.econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkpbs/ECONtribute_PB_029_2022.pdf
• Franziska Holz, Robin Sogalla, Christian von Hirschhausen und Claudia Kemfert (2022) "Energy supply in Germany is secured also without natural gas from Russia" https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.838841.de/diw_aktuell_83.pdf
• MEP Michael Bloss, Dr. Manuel Köhler (Aurora), Prof. Veronika Grimm (FAU), Franziska Brantner (BMWK), Elias Perabo on Europe Calling "Stop gas, oil and coal from Russia?", 2022, https://youtu.be/ab7jFm8CUnU . At the beginning the analyzes by Aurora Energy Research, especially from minute 9 "Halt to Russian gas imports scenario", and Prof. Grimm, then discussion.
• Leopoldina. (2022). How Russian natural gas can be replaced in the German and European energy supply. https://www.leopoldina.org/fileadmin/redaktion/Publikationen/Nationale_Empfehlungen/2022_Stellungnahme_EnergieSicherheit.pdf
• Palacio, A. (2022, February 28). How Europe Can Sustain Russia Sanctions | by Ana Palacio, et al. Project Syndicate. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/europe-security-facility-to-enable-sanctions-by-ana-palacio-et-al-2022-02
• Zimmer, Markus, Katharina Utermöhl, and Ano Kuhanthan, Allianz Research, “CAN EUROPE DO WITHOUT RUSSIAN GAS?,” 2022. https://www.allianz.com/content/dam/onemarketing/azcom/Allianz_com/economic-research/publications/specials/en/2022/march/2022_03_03_EU_without_russian_gas.pdf
• Hecking, Harald, Christopher John, and Florian Weiser. “An Embargo of Russian Gas and Security of Supply in Europe,” 2014. https://www.ewi.uni-koeln.de/cms/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2014-09__An_Embargo_of_Russian_Gas_and_Security_of_Supply_in_Europe_0610.pdf
• Bayer, Christian, Moritz Kuhn, Benjamin Moll, and Moritz Schularick. "Russian gas import ban: Procrastination costs a lot more." The time. March 14, 2022, Economy. https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2022-03/importstopp-gas-russia-ukraine-energie/komplettsicht
• Institute of German Economics, “Russian gas: Can Europe cope with an import ban?”. https://www.iwkoeln.de/presse/iw-nachrichten/verkraftet-europa-einen-importstopp.html . In it, the effects of gas embargoes against Russia of various lengths are analyzed within the framework of hypothetical scenarios.
• Guriev, Sergei, and Olivier Itskhoki. The Economic Rationale for an Oil and Gas Embargo on Putin's Regime. bne IntelliNews, March 24, 2022. https://www.bne.eu/comment-the-economic-rationale-for-an-oil-and-gas-embargo-on-putin-s-regime-239019/?source=ukraine
• Guriyev, Sergei, and Oleg Itskhoki. "Oil and Gas from Russia: Why an Embargo Could End Vladimir Putin's War." Der Spiegel, March 22, 2022, sec. Economy. https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/oel-und-gas-aus-russia-warum-ein-embargo-wladimir-putins-krieg-beenden-koennte-a-9537c522-5f56-4856-97bc-86080c2b7028
• Lukasz Rachel. “RUSSIA ENERGY BAN MYTH BUSTER: Frequent Arguments against Taking Action Now, and Why They Don't Stack up,” 2022. https://t.co/L26ZGfX9IK

Acknowledgments: Parts of the analysis from https://weact.campact.de/org/petitions/importstopp-von-russian-gas-jetzt-ohne-finanzierung-von-putins-kriegsmaschinerie-mehr

Gas Delivery Reports

• ddobble.net. “EU Member State Spending on Russian Fossil Fuels.” http://beyond-coal.eu/russian-fossil-fuel-tracker/
• "EU Continues to Buy Russian Gas Amid Ukraine War - Bloomberg." Accessed March 29, 2022. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/eu-s-payments-for-russian-gas-surge-amid-war-chart
• ENTSOG gas flow data https://transparency.entsog.eu/#/points/data?points=

cost accounts:

• 1 trillion EUR: Liadze, Iana, Corrado Macchiarelli, Paul Mortimer-Lee, and Patricia Sanchez Juanino. “The Economic Costs of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict,” no. 32 (nd): 12. https://www.niesr.ac.uk/publications/economic-costs-russia-ukraine-conflict?type=policy-papers

For comparison: US cost of war in Afghanistan: $2.313 trillion, Watson Institute. “Human and Budgetary Costs to Date of the US War in Afghanistan, 2001-2022 | Characters | cost of war." The Costs of War, 2022. https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/figures/2021/human-and-budgetary-costs-date-us-war-afghanistan-2001-2022