Feasibility

TL;DR: Russian energy embargo is feasible both technically and economically, and popular counter-arguments do not stack up

Economical studies

Numerous studies by different research institutes and think tanks show that immediate embargo of Russian gas, oil and coal would be manageable. The costs are estimated comparable or below Coronavirus protection measures (e.g, -0.5% to -6% GDP in Germany). Importantly, most studies analyzed the impact of an embargo starting from March/April 2022. Banning Russian energy now (May/June) would be even easier/cheaper: EU gas storage filling levels increased from 25% in March to 50% as of June, 5th . Cynically, this "improvement" was paid by thousands of Ukrainian lives.

Author	Date	Scope	Energy type	Title	Estimated impact
IWH Halle	26.04.2022	Germany	Natural gas	Regional effects of recession in Germany due to Russion gas supply interruption	The results are nuanced and often (arbitrarily?) misinterpreted by gas embargo opponents. Hence, we discuss them in detail here.
DIW Berlin ifo München IfW Kiel IWH Halle RWI Essen	12.04.2022	Germany	All	From pandemic to the energy crisis – Economy and politics under permanent stress	GDP: +1.9% in 2022, -2.2% in 2023 Unemployment: 5.2% in 2022, 6.0% in 2023 in gas embargo scenario, as opposed to non-embargo scenario, which assumes 5.0% for both years (p. 67)
DIW	08.04.2022	Germany	Natural gas	Energy supply in Germany is secured also without natural gas from Russia	~10% gas shortage
Agora Energiewende	March/April 2022	Germany	Natural gas	Energy security and climate protection reconciled: The way out of the fossil energy crisis	Short-term saving potential between 160 TWh and 260 TWh, which is close to the amount of Russian gas to be replaced (230--290 TWh)
IMK	March 2022	Germany	Natural gas	Ukraine war complicates post-pandemic recovery: economic forecast 2023	GDP 2022: -3.9% (vs. 2021) to -6% (vs. baseline scenario) (the cost of reducing gas demand by ~15% of imported volumes through higher prices)
Leopoldina	08.03.2022	Germany	Natural gas	How Russian gas can be substituted in German and European energy supply	"We come to the conclusion that immediate stop of Russian gas supply would be manageable for German economy. It could come to shortages in the next winter, however it is possible to limit negative effects and alleviate social hardness by implementing the suggested counter-measures."
ECONtribute	07.03.2022	Germany	All	What if...? The economic impact of a Russian energy import ban on Germany	-0,5 % to -3 % GDP
Allianz Research	03.03.2022	Europe	Natural gas	Can Europe do without Russian gas?	+40% electricity price increase and a +100% gas price, which would reduce demand by 8-10% and increase supply from alternative sources by 8-10% in the short-term
Aurora Research	03.03.2022	Europe	Natural gas	Impact of Russia-Ukraine war on European gas markets: can Europe cope without Russian gas?	-14% demand reduction with concerted efforts by regulators, industry and consumers EUR 60-100 billion investment and government intervention to fill the storage Video presentation
Bruegel	28.02.2022	Europe	Natural gas	Preparing for the first winter without Russian gas	If all Russian gas imports were to stop on March 1, 2022: "Europe would need to reduce demand by at minimum 400 TWh (or 10%-15% of annual demand). This is possible. A portfolio of exceptional options could abate at least 800 TWh."

• MEP Michael Bloss, Dr. Manuel Köhler (Aurora), Prof. Veronika Grimm (FAU), Franziska Brantner (BMWK), Elias Perabo on Europe Calling "Stop gas, oil and coal from Russia?", 2022, https://youtu.be/ab7jFm8CUnU . At the beginning the analyzes by Aurora Energy Research, especially from minute 9 "Halt to Russian gas imports scenario", and Prof. Grimm, then discussion.
• Palacio, A. (2022, February 28). How Europe Can Sustain Russia Sanctions | by Ana Palacio, et al. Project Syndicate. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/europe-security-facility-to-enable-sanctions-by-ana-palacio-et-al-2022-02
• Hecking, Harald, Christopher John, and Florian Weiser. “An Embargo of Russian Gas and Security of Supply in Europe,” 2014. https://www.ewi.uni-koeln.de/cms/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2014-09__An_Embargo_of_Russian_Gas_and_Security_of_Supply_in_Europe_0610.pdf
• Bayer, Christian, Moritz Kuhn, Benjamin Moll, and Moritz Schularick. "Russian gas import ban: Procrastination costs a lot more." The time. March 14, 2022, Economy. https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2022-03/importstopp-gas-russia-ukraine-energie/komplettsicht
• Guriev, Sergei, and Olivier Itskhoki. The Economic Rationale for an Oil and Gas Embargo on Putin's Regime. bne IntelliNews, March 24, 2022. https://www.bne.eu/comment-the-economic-rationale-for-an-oil-and-gas-embargo-on-putin-s-regime-239019/?source=ukraine
• Guriyev, Sergei, and Oleg Itskhoki. "Oil and Gas from Russia: Why an Embargo Could End Vladimir Putin's War." Der Spiegel, March 22, 2022, sec. Economy. https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/oel-und-gas-aus-russia-warum-ein-embargo-wladimir-putins-krieg-beenden-koennte-a-9537c522-5f56-4856-97bc-86080c2b7028

Opinions and statements

It is important to differentiate between evidence- and data-based studies listed above, and individual opinions, which are based on general wisdom and/or (presumed) expertise in the field, and can be heavily biased.

Pro-embargo

Prof. Veronika Grimm, Wirtschaftsweise: „Es gibt kein Modell, das eine Katastrophe plausibel darlegt“

Gas Delivery Reports

• ddobble.net. “EU Member State Spending on Russian Fossil Fuels.” http://beyond-coal.eu/russian-fossil-fuel-tracker/
• "EU Continues to Buy Russian Gas Amid Ukraine War - Bloomberg." Accessed March 29, 2022. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/eu-s-payments-for-russian-gas-surge-amid-war-chart
• ENTSOG gas flow data https://transparency.entsog.eu/#/points/data?points=
• European natural gas imports: https://www.bruegel.org/publications/datasets/european-natural-gas-imports/

cost accounts:

• 1 trillion EUR: Liadze, Iana, Corrado Macchiarelli, Paul Mortimer-Lee, and Patricia Sanchez Juanino. “The Economic Costs of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict,” no. 32 (nd): 12. https://www.niesr.ac.uk/publications/economic-costs-russia-ukraine-conflict?type=policy-papers

For comparison: US cost of war in Afghanistan: $2.313 trillion, Watson Institute. “Human and Budgetary Costs to Date of the US War in Afghanistan, 2001-2022 | Characters | cost of war." The Costs of War, 2022. https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/figures/2021/human-and-budgetary-costs-date-us-war-afghanistan-2001-2022